Prezados, acabo de dar uma entrevista na Bloomberg TV, que será retransmitida ao longo do dia.
Basicamente, eu informei que:
- Há uma grande deterioração no crédito corporativo (empresa dando calote em empresa) nos EUA, o que não deveria ser surpresa para ninguém. Houve um pico no primeiro trimestre, mas ainda constatamos um aumento na inadimplência 110% pior do que 12 meses atrás.
- A Europa caminha para um cenário de recessão e deterioração de crédito também.
- Quanto ao Brasil, eu disse que acho que a situação econômica e de crédito no Brasil vai piorar consideravelmente em 2009.
Abaixo, eu divido com vocês uma breve análise do Professor Nourial Roubini, da NYU e da RGE Monitor:
There is now an increasing probability that the global economy – not just the US – will experience a serious and protracted recession. Macro developments in the last few weeks suggest that now all of the G7 economies (the group of the major advanced economies including US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) are already in a recession or close to tipping into one. Other advanced economies or emerging markets (the rest of the Eurozone including Spain. Ireland the the other Euro members; New Zealand, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia and some other South-East Europe economies) are also on the tip of a recessionary hard landing.
And once this group of twenty plus economies enters into a recession there will be a sharp growth slowdown in the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and other emerging market economies. The IMF defines a global recession as a global growth rate below 2.5% as emerging market economies usually grow much faster (6%) than advanced economies where growth averages about 2%. For example, a country like China – that even with a growth rate of 10% plus has officially thousands of riots and protests a year – needs to move 15 million poor rural farmers to the modern urban industrial sector with higher wages every year just to maintain the legitimacy of its regime; so for China a growth rate of 6% would be equivalent to a recessionary hard landing. It now looks like that, by the end of this year or early 2009, the global economy will enter a recession.